Synthetic Controls

Brazil Results

combine estimates

	SC Estimate (95% CI)	Time trend Estimate (95% CI)	Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI)	STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
0	0.82 (0.75, 0.97)	0.86 (0.74, 0.98)	0.97 (0.85, 1.11)	0.93 (0.79, 1.08)
1	0.77 (0.72, 0.81)	0.72 (0.63, 0.82)	0.86 (0.77, 0.95)	0.83 (0.76, 0.92)
2	0.76 (0.73, 0.8)	0.76 (0.67, 0.85)	0.81 (0.75, 0.89)	0.79 (0.74, 0.86)
3	0.78 (0.71, 0.84)	0.82 (0.72, 0.91)	0.81 (0.75, 0.88)	0.81 (0.74, 0.9)
4	0.81 (0.75, 0.9)	0.79 (0.7, 0.9)	0.77 (0.69, 0.89)	0.76 (0.65, 0.87)
5	0.82 (0.74, 0.91)	0.83 (0.72, 0.96)	0.9 (0.75, 1.05)	0.87 (0.74, 1.01)
6	1.01 (0.82, 1.12)	0.95 (0.85, 1.06)	1 (0.88, 1.1)	0.84 (0.76, 0.94)
7	0.93 (0.82, 1.07)	0.97 (0.88, 1.07)	1.05 (0.93, 1.15)	0.96 (0.88, 1.05)
8	0.98 (0.87, 1.08)	0.98 (0.91, 1.08)	1.04 (0.94, 1.15)	0.99 (0.91, 1.09)
9	0.75 (0.71, 0.82)	0.72 (0.64, 0.84)	0.89 (0.8, 1.01)	0.84 (0.75, 0.92)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups	Synthetic Controls	Time trend	Time trend (no offset)	STL+PCA
0	0.886	0.114	0.000	0.000
1	0.963	0.000	0.000	0.037
2	0.951	0.049	0.000	0.000
3	0.000	0.815	0.185	0.000
4	0.135	0.000	0.705	0.160
5	0.873	0.000	0.127	0.000
6	0.040	0.067	0.000	0.893
7	0.922	0.078	0.000	0.000
8	0.006	0.000	0.000	0.994
9	0.946	0.045	0.009	0.000

Inclusion Probabilities

Group	Greatest Inclusion Variable	Greatest Inclusion Probability	Second Greatest Inclusion Variable	Second Greatest Inclusion Probability	Third Greatest Inclusion Variable	Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
0	E00_99	1.0000000	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	S00_T99	0.3979340
1	E40_46	1.0000000	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	K00_99	0.2394907
2	E40_46	1.0000000	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	N39	0.6190864
3	K00_99	0.5447774	cJ20_J22	0.4548648	E40_46	0.2809175
4	pandemic	1.0000000	N00_99	0.9660431	N39	0.6086276
5	I00_99	1.0000000	pandemic	1.0000000	A41	0.9999999
6	pandemic	0.9999962	L00_99	0.3651420	E00_99	0.3427407
7	I00_99	0.6238808	A41	0.5904445	H00_99_SY	0.3871076
8	A41	0.7455734	I00_99	0.2249709	L00_99	0.1606618
9	E40_46	1.0000000	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	K00_99	0.0888987

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

	Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 1	Inclusion Probability of Control 1	Control 1 Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 2	Inclusion Probability of Control 2	Control 2 Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 3	Inclusion Probability of Control 3	Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
0	0.82 (0.75, 0.97)	cJ20_J22	1	0.87 (0.74, 1.12)	E00_99	1	0.87 (0.72, 1.13)	S00_T99	0.4	0.91 (0.73, 1.11)
1	0.77 (0.72, 0.81)	cJ20_J22	1	0.75 (0.69, 0.86)	E40_46	1	0.76 (0.7, 0.94)	K00_99	0.24	0.76 (0.72, 0.93)
2	0.76 (0.73, 0.8)	cJ20_J22	1	0.76 (0.7, 0.95)	E40_46	1	0.75 (0.67, 0.91)	N39	0.62	0.83 (0.72, 0.93)
3	0.78 (0.71, 0.84)	K00_99	0.54	0.76 (0.71, 0.93)	cJ20_J22	0.45	0.75 (0.7, 0.88)	E40_46	0.28	0.75 (0.71, 0.9)
4	0.81 (0.75, 0.9)	pandemic	1	0.68 (0.56, 0.81)	N00_99	0.97	0.74 (0.59, 0.81)	N39	0.61	0.75 (0.55, 0.83)
5	0.82 (0.74, 0.91)	pandemic	1	0.68 (0.58, 0.81)	I00_99	1	0.63 (0.55, 0.8)	A41	1	0.79 (0.69, 0.88)
6	1.01 (0.82, 1.12)	pandemic	1	0.85 (0.72, 0.95)	L00_99	0.37	0.8 (0.68, 0.92)	E00_99	0.34	0.85 (0.71, 1.06)
7	0.93 (0.82, 1.07)	I00_99	0.62	1.11 (0.86, 1.27)	A41	0.59	1.11 (0.93, 1.23)	H00_99_SY	0.39	1.09 (0.86, 1.21)
8	0.98 (0.87, 1.08)	A41	0.75	1.03 (0.89, 1.17)	I00_99	0.22	1.03 (0.9, 1.15)	L00_99	0.16	1.03 (0.86, 1.18)
9	0.75 (0.71, 0.82)	cJ20_J22	1	0.85 (0.71, 1.04)	E40_46	1	0.81 (0.7, 0.93)	K00_99	0.09	0.85 (0.69, 0.93)

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