Brazil Results

combine estimates

SC Estimate (95% CI) Time trend Estimate (95% CI) Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
0 0.82 (0.75, 0.97) 0.86 (0.74, 0.98) 0.97 (0.85, 1.11) 0.93 (0.79, 1.08)
1 0.77 (0.72, 0.81) 0.72 (0.63, 0.82) 0.86 (0.77, 0.95) 0.83 (0.76, 0.92)
2 0.76 (0.73, 0.8) 0.76 (0.67, 0.85) 0.81 (0.75, 0.89) 0.79 (0.74, 0.86)
3 0.78 (0.71, 0.84) 0.82 (0.72, 0.91) 0.81 (0.75, 0.88) 0.81 (0.74, 0.9)
4 0.81 (0.75, 0.9) 0.79 (0.7, 0.9) 0.77 (0.69, 0.89) 0.76 (0.65, 0.87)
5 0.82 (0.74, 0.91) 0.83 (0.72, 0.96) 0.9 (0.75, 1.05) 0.87 (0.74, 1.01)
6 1.01 (0.82, 1.12) 0.95 (0.85, 1.06) 1 (0.88, 1.1) 0.84 (0.76, 0.94)
7 0.93 (0.82, 1.07) 0.97 (0.88, 1.07) 1.05 (0.93, 1.15) 0.96 (0.88, 1.05)
8 0.98 (0.87, 1.08) 0.98 (0.91, 1.08) 1.04 (0.94, 1.15) 0.99 (0.91, 1.09)
9 0.75 (0.71, 0.82) 0.72 (0.64, 0.84) 0.89 (0.8, 1.01) 0.84 (0.75, 0.92)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups Synthetic Controls Time trend Time trend (no offset) STL+PCA
0 0.886 0.114 0.000 0.000
1 0.963 0.000 0.000 0.037
2 0.951 0.049 0.000 0.000
3 0.000 0.815 0.185 0.000
4 0.135 0.000 0.705 0.160
5 0.873 0.000 0.127 0.000
6 0.040 0.067 0.000 0.893
7 0.922 0.078 0.000 0.000
8 0.006 0.000 0.000 0.994
9 0.946 0.045 0.009 0.000

Inclusion Probabilities

Group Greatest Inclusion Variable Greatest Inclusion Probability Second Greatest Inclusion Variable Second Greatest Inclusion Probability Third Greatest Inclusion Variable Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
0 E00_99 1.0000000 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 S00_T99 0.3979340
1 E40_46 1.0000000 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 K00_99 0.2394907
2 E40_46 1.0000000 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 N39 0.6190864
3 K00_99 0.5447774 cJ20_J22 0.4548648 E40_46 0.2809175
4 pandemic 1.0000000 N00_99 0.9660431 N39 0.6086276
5 I00_99 1.0000000 pandemic 1.0000000 A41 0.9999999
6 pandemic 0.9999962 L00_99 0.3651420 E00_99 0.3427407
7 I00_99 0.6238808 A41 0.5904445 H00_99_SY 0.3871076
8 A41 0.7455734 I00_99 0.2249709 L00_99 0.1606618
9 E40_46 1.0000000 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 K00_99 0.0888987

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 1 Inclusion Probability of Control 1 Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 2 Inclusion Probability of Control 2 Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 3 Inclusion Probability of Control 3 Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
0 0.82 (0.75, 0.97) cJ20_J22 1 0.87 (0.74, 1.12) E00_99 1 0.87 (0.72, 1.13) S00_T99 0.4 0.91 (0.73, 1.11)
1 0.77 (0.72, 0.81) cJ20_J22 1 0.75 (0.69, 0.86) E40_46 1 0.76 (0.7, 0.94) K00_99 0.24 0.76 (0.72, 0.93)
2 0.76 (0.73, 0.8) cJ20_J22 1 0.76 (0.7, 0.95) E40_46 1 0.75 (0.67, 0.91) N39 0.62 0.83 (0.72, 0.93)
3 0.78 (0.71, 0.84) K00_99 0.54 0.76 (0.71, 0.93) cJ20_J22 0.45 0.75 (0.7, 0.88) E40_46 0.28 0.75 (0.71, 0.9)
4 0.81 (0.75, 0.9) pandemic 1 0.68 (0.56, 0.81) N00_99 0.97 0.74 (0.59, 0.81) N39 0.61 0.75 (0.55, 0.83)
5 0.82 (0.74, 0.91) pandemic 1 0.68 (0.58, 0.81) I00_99 1 0.63 (0.55, 0.8) A41 1 0.79 (0.69, 0.88)
6 1.01 (0.82, 1.12) pandemic 1 0.85 (0.72, 0.95) L00_99 0.37 0.8 (0.68, 0.92) E00_99 0.34 0.85 (0.71, 1.06)
7 0.93 (0.82, 1.07) I00_99 0.62 1.11 (0.86, 1.27) A41 0.59 1.11 (0.93, 1.23) H00_99_SY 0.39 1.09 (0.86, 1.21)
8 0.98 (0.87, 1.08) A41 0.75 1.03 (0.89, 1.17) I00_99 0.22 1.03 (0.9, 1.15) L00_99 0.16 1.03 (0.86, 1.18)
9 0.75 (0.71, 0.82) cJ20_J22 1 0.85 (0.71, 1.04) E40_46 1 0.81 (0.7, 0.93) K00_99 0.09 0.85 (0.69, 0.93)

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